Daily Murders in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Statistics

The average count of per-day murders each month in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh administrative figures. However, public safety analysts have warned that homicide figures might not signal improved countrywide security.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September. This data was delivered by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen during these months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that last month the smallest number of homicides were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President declared: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Increased coordination between various departments.

Expert Caution and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety experts urged caution that using homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is notably true considering the uptick in different crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for gauging the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it may hide periods when there were notably spiking levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day average renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for major crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by high violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to express their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst said.