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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But the current field is profoundly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and recent underperformers improving collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still